Only fools rush in (or out): Caution calls for a rotation, not exit
If there is one thing I’ve learned about the psychology of the investor, it’s this: people don’t like to miss out on a run-up. If you sat on the sidelines in 2022 and 2023—perhaps opting for a guaranteed 5% return on a GIC—then you ended up missing out on significant gains.
That creates an emotional pull to make a change and jump back into Equity markets when the perfect opportunity arises. But here’s the catch: the perfect opportunity doesn’t exist, because precisely timing the market is virtually impossible.
![Fred Demers](https://www.bmogam.com/uploads/2022/12/be071d094ed609c00a6cf6c5396804ee/fred-demers-220x220-1.png?r=f9bd509415b132430b4a52e2efbc0ef4&v=1672244836)
Wheels down: the long-awaited soft landing is here
U.S. Outlook
Canada Outlook
![](https://www.bmogam.com/uploads/2024/08/031917a57548d79e06da67863ef0ff47/unemployment_rate.jpg)
International Outlook
Key Risks | BMO GAM house view |
---|---|
Recession |
|
Inflation |
|
Interest rates |
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Consumer |
|
Housing |
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Geopolitics |
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Energy |
|
![Steven Shepherd profile photo](https://www.bmogam.com/uploads/2021/04/bbd9007f07bce8861e06dbc71fff8684/steven-shepherd-220x220-1.png)
Asset Classes
EQUITIES
- Very Bearish
- Bearish
- Slightly Bearish
- Neutral
- Slightly Bullish
- Bullish
- Very Bullish
FIXED INCOME
- Very Bearish
- Bearish
- Slightly Bearish
- Neutral
- Slightly Bullish
- Bullish
- Very Bullish
CASH
- Very Bearish
- Bearish
- Slightly Bearish
- Neutral
- Slightly Bullish
- Bullish
- Very Bullish
![](https://www.bmogam.com/uploads/2022/12/4d131a2f194d5163f787b08b64393b01/marchello_holditch_350x350.png)
Equity
CANADA
- Very Bearish
- Bearish
- Slightly Bearish
- Neutral
- Slightly Bullish
- Bullish
- Very Bullish
U.S.A.
- Very Bearish
- Bearish
- Slightly Bearish
- Neutral
- Slightly Bullish
- Bullish
- Very Bullish
EAFE
- Very Bearish
- Bearish
- Slightly Bearish
- Neutral
- Slightly Bullish
- Bullish
- Very Bullish
EM
- Very Bearish
- Bearish
- Slightly Bearish
- Neutral
- Slightly Bullish
- Bullish
- Very Bullish
![](https://www.bmogam.com/uploads/2022/12/4d131a2f194d5163f787b08b64393b01/marchello_holditch_350x350.png)
Fixed Income
IG CREDIT
- Very Bearish
- Bearish
- Slightly Bearish
- Neutral
- Slightly Bullish
- Bullish
- Very Bullish
HIGH YIELD
- Very Bearish
- Bearish
- Slightly Bearish
- Neutral
- Slightly Bullish
- Bullish
- Very Bullish
DURATION
- Very Bearish
- Bearish
- Slightly Bearish
- Neutral
- Slightly Bullish
- Bullish
- Very Bullish
EM DEBT
- Very Bearish
- Bearish
- Slightly Bearish
- Neutral
- Slightly Bullish
- Bullish
- Very Bullish
![Steven Shepherd profile photo](https://www.bmogam.com/uploads/2021/04/bbd9007f07bce8861e06dbc71fff8684/steven-shepherd-220x220-1.png)
Style & Factor
VALUE
- Very Bearish
- Bearish
- Slightly Bearish
- Neutral
- Slightly Bullish
- Bullish
- Very Bullish
QUALITY
- Very Bearish
- Bearish
- Slightly Bearish
- Neutral
- Slightly Bullish
- Bullish
- Very Bullish
VOLATILITY
- Very Bearish
- Bearish
- Slightly Bearish
- Neutral
- Slightly Bullish
- Bullish
- Very Bullish
SIZE
- Very Bearish
- Bearish
- Slightly Bearish
- Neutral
- Slightly Bullish
- Bullish
- Very Bullish
![Steven Shepherd profile photo](https://www.bmogam.com/uploads/2021/04/bbd9007f07bce8861e06dbc71fff8684/steven-shepherd-220x220-1.png)
Implementation
![](https://www.bmogam.com/uploads/2024/08/c0a479661310d2d08b638e3497cb847e/golden_candles_price_growth.jpg)
CAD
- Very Bearish
- Bearish
- Slightly Bearish
- Neutral
- Slightly Bullish
- Bullish
- Very Bullish
GOLD
- Very Bearish
- Bearish
- Slightly Bearish
- Neutral
- Slightly Bullish
- Bullish
- Very Bullish
Footnotes
1 Duration: A measure of the sensitivity of the price of a fixed income investment to a change in interest rates. Duration is expressed as number of years. The price of a bond with a longer duration would be expected to rise (fall) more than the price of a bond with lower duration when interest rates fall (rise).↩
2 Tail risk: The possibility that a highly improbable event will occur.↩
3 Volatility: Measures how much the price of a security, derivative, or index fluctuates.↩
4 Beta: A measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole.↩
Disclosures
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